Tongkun shares (601233) 2019 performance preview comment: polyester filament yarn performance in line with price performance results in line with expectations
Event: The company announces the 2019 annual performance forecast. It is expected that the annual results for 2019 will 重庆耍耍网 be 2.8 billion to 3 billion, an increase of 32% -41% over the same period. In the single quarter, the fourth quarter of 2019 net profit3.
4.9 billion, a chain purity of 48.
The polyester filament industry’s business climate has declined, and the company’s performance has been in line with expected changes in international oil prices. The price of polyester filament products will continue to decline in 2019. From a gradual point of view, the average price of polyester filament POY is about 7,954 yuan / ton, a decrease of 17%.The price difference of polyester filament-PTA-carboxylic acid is about 1367 yuan / ton, 10% per inch.
The company’s filament production capacity is gradually released in 2019. We expect the company’s annual filament sales to increase by about 20% in 2019. At the same time, the company’s fourth quarter of 2018 caused poor profitability due to falling inventory prices, and the growth of growth in 2019 was in line with expectations.
Looking at the fourth quarter of 2019 alone, the average price of polyester filament was doped 11 compared with the previous month.
At 07%, the polyester filament-PTA-cereal spread narrowed by 26 compared with the previous month.
At 22%, the company ‘s filament profitability declined; at the same time, the PTA-PX spread also narrowed by 33 from the previous month.
25%, so the company ‘s supporting profitability of 400 PTTA has also shifted, which is the company’s fourth-quarter performance leading quarter-on-quarter replacement.
The polyester industry has improved margins, and the operation of large-scale refining and chemical production will generate investment income prices and spreads at relatively low historical levels. The industry is expected to usher in marginal improvements.
The Zhejiang Petrochemical project, in which the company has a 20% stake, has been put into production at the end of 2019, which will bring investment income in the future.
Underestimated the polyester filament leader, maintaining the “recommended” rating. The company’s existing polyester polymerization capacity is about 520 tons, and the polyester filament capacity is about 570 tons. At the same time, 4 polyester filament projects are under construction, and the total increase in capacity is about 120 per year. It is a developmentChina’s leading polyester filament company, polyester filament has been No. 1 in domestic and international markets for more than ten consecutive years, with a domestic market share of over 16% and an international market share of about 11%. We expect the company to return to its parent company in 2019-2021.Profits were 29.
8.3 billion, the current corresponding PE is expected to be 9, 7, and 6 times, which is estimated to be at historically low levels, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk warning: product prices fall sharply, new projects put into operation are less than expected