Changan Automobile (000625)： New models continue to force Changan’s independent growth against the market

Changan Automobile (000625): New models continue to force Changan’s independent growth against the market
Changan’s independent sales increased sharply, Changan Mazda sales improved on December 10, and Changan Automobile announced that it would achieve wholesale sales of 17 in November.60,000 units, +12 a year.6%.　　Of which independent wholesale sales 8.90,000 units, +24 a year.6%; Changan Ford wholesale sales 2.10,000 units, -23% a year, +2 from the previous month.4%; Changan Mazda’s wholesale sales1.250 thousand units, +12 a year.6%.　　According to China Automobile Association data, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in November are -5 per year.At 4%, we believe that Changan’s independent CS75plus, CS55plus and other new models are working hard, and independent sales have increased against the market.Ford’s wholesale sales improved slightly from the previous month, and the decline over the years narrowed.Looking forward to 2020, the company will be in a strong model cycle, with both volume and profit rising, new models such as Lincoln’s localization, Ruiji, Explorer will be launched, and Changan Ford will enter the new model cycle. It is expected that EPS in 19-21 will be -0.09, 0.67, 1.20 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.　　New models are highly competitive, and Changan ‘s independent sales have increased sharply. According to the company ‘s official website, Changan ‘s Chinese brand cars ‘retail sales in November were 13%.50,000 vehicles, +18 a year.1%, +8.9%.Among them, CS75 series retail sales 2.70,000, +126 in the past.2%, new model CS75 plus retail sales1.90,000 vehicles, +10 chain.9%, “explosion models” aircraft sales continue to climb, we expect CS75 series sales in 2020 is expected to reach 300,000 units.CS35 plus retail sales1.60,000 vehicles, + 20% MoM, +25 in ten 厦门夜网 years.4%.CS55 series sales 1.10,000 units, +51.6%, of which the CS55 just launched in November plus 10,783 units sold.Yidong sold 10,000 units, +8 in ten years.1%, +10.7%.In 2020, CS65, Yidong’s mid-term makeover, new cars such as Auchan X7 are expected to continue to drive sales growth, and independent sales and profits are expected to continue to improve.　　Five new cars will be launched. Changan Ford sales are expected to reverse in November. Changan Ford’s wholesale sales volume1.90,000 units, -23% a year, +2 from the previous month.4%.We expect Changan Ford to have sales of 18 in 19 years.60,000 units, -51% a year.According to Car House data, in 2020, Changan Ford’s main new cars will be Sharp, Explorer, Lincoln Corsair, Lincoln Flying Home, Lincoln Voyager, etc.We believe that the sales and profit of Changan Ford introduced by the new model are expected to improve. In 19 or Changan Ford, the sales volume will be the lowest point. It is estimated that the sales volume will be 300,000 and 400,000 units in 20-21.Changan Ford’s product structure has improved, both volume and price have risen, and profit elasticity has become greater.We expect Changan Ford’s bicycle revenues to be 13 in 19-21.50,000, 14.90,000, 16.30,000 yuan, +2 a year.5%, + 10%, + 10%, breakeven sales are expected to decline.　　In the short term, the company’s new energy subsidiary plans to mix and change, and plans to sell Changan PSA equity to reduce blood loss.　　At first glance, the company’s operating cycle is expected to resonate with the industry cycle, and the sales and performance improvement flexibility is large.Considering the better-than-expected improvement in independent sales in 2020, we expect net profit attributable to mothers to be -4 in 19-21.4,32,57 billion yuan (up 0%, 18.5%, 0%), EPS-0 is expected in 19-21.09, 0.67, 1.20 yuan.The company’s profitability is relatively volatile, and the PB estimation method is used to estimate. The comparable company’s 19-year average PB is 1.58 times, we think the company’s sales volume is expected to improve in the future, and the PB is expected to be repaired to 1 in 19?1.It is doubled, and the BPS in 19 is expected to be 9.51 yuan, maintaining a 19-year target price of 9.51?10.46 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.　　Risk warning: Domestic passenger car sales are not up to expectations, new model sales are up to expectations, government subsidies are not up to expectations, and hybrid improvement is not up to expectations.