Yutong Bus (600066): China Yutong Global Travel
Achieve great global bus leader.
Since 2003, Yutong Bus has maintained the No. 1 sales volume of large and medium-sized buses in China 上海夜网论坛 for 15 consecutive years, and No. 1 in the world for 7 consecutive years. Yutong Bus has also become the world’s first bus brand with annual sales of over 70,000 vehicles.
In 2018, Yutong’s buses over 5 meters increased to 25% market share, and large and medium passenger market share reached 35%.
In the first two months of 2019, the sales of buses over 5 meters in the industry increased by 9 year-on-year.
Yutong’s market share continues to be at the top of the industry, with its share rising to 28%.
The overall electrification of public transportation is accelerating.
At the end of 2017, Shenzhen City gradually promoted the application of 16,359 pure electric buses. At the end of 2018, Guangzhou City delivered and operated 10,486 pure electric buses, all of which have achieved 100% electrification of buses.
In 2019, Xi’an is expected to become the third city in the country to fully electrify buses.
By 2020, major cities in China, including Beijing and Shanghai, will fully realize bus electrification.
The market share of Yutong New Energy Bus is close to 30%, and it will continue to benefit from the full electrification of transportation and the defense of the blue sky.
Leading China’s high-end manufacturing exports.
In 2005, Yutong Bus officially started to fight overseas markets. Since the first batch of passenger buses exported to Cuba in 2005, Yutong has a 99% market share in Cuba.
Up to now, Yutong has formed six major regions in Europe and the United States, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Latin America, the CIS, Africa and other regions, and has exceeded exports6.
40,000 units, covering more than 120 countries and regions.
Overseas revenue accounted for 13% in 2018, and the company is expected to build another Yutong overseas.
Intelligent network connection opens the road to high-end.
In 2018, Yutong Intelligent Network Connected pure electric buses were delivered to customers in batches, and they played a major role in the transportation services of the first China International Import Expo. Intelligent Connected Buses officially started the high-end road of Yutong; 100 E12 pure electric buses were exported to Chile, refreshing the company.Record of the largest order for export of new energy buses; the company’s fuel cell transportation has achieved mass promotion and application in Zhengzhou, Zhangjiabang and other places, and Yutong buses have led the whole track.
Gross margin bottomed out.
In Q3 2018, Yutong’s gross profit margin increased significantly from the previous quarter.
7 points to 27.
3%, Q4 single quarter continued to rise to 28%, creating the highest single quarter gross margin since 2017.
Investment suggestion: bottom performance + high end + estimation bottom.
In the past 6 years, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of Yutong Bus ranges from 10-18X. The replacement dividend in 2019 is estimated to be about 11X, which is at the bottom of historical forecasts.
We estimate the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019-2021: 26.
7/32 billion, corresponding PE is 13/12 / 11X.
Risk warning: Yutong bus production and sales are less than expected; new energy vehicle policies are lower than expected.